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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 9:12 pm   #1
DustyRytStyk
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Default XBS Finals Preview: Florida vs. St. Louis

XBS Finals Preview

31-24-5 (3rd overall)
Season Record
40-15-5 (1st overall)
210 (4th)
Goals For
245 (1st)
206 (2nd)
Goals Against
173 (1st)
846 (6th)
Shots
940 (3rd)
891 (2nd)
Hits
871 (3rd)
387 (6th)
Penalty Minutes
568 (1st)
20.1% (5th)
Power Play
28.0% (1st)
74.5% (5th)
Penalty Kill
81.4% (1st)

Season Series:
Panthers Won 6 - 5 - 1

Game 1: St. Louis @ Florida (Florida, 3 – 1)
Game 2: Florida @ St. Louis (Florida, 4 – 2)
Game 3: St. Louis @ Florida (St. Louis, 4 – 1)
Game 4: Florida @ St. Louis (Florida, 5 – 3)
Game 5: St. Louis @ Florida (St. Louis, 7 – 2)
Game 6: Florida @ St. Louis (Florida, 6 – 4)
Game 7: Florida @ St. Louis (Florida, 4 – 2)
Game 8: St. Louis @ Florida (St. Louis, 6 – 3)
Game 9: St. Louis @ Florida (St. Louis, 5 – 4)
Game 10: Florida @ St. Louis (Florida, 3 – 0)
Game 11: St. Louis @ Florida (St. Louis, 5 – 2)
Game 12: Florida @ St. Louis (St. Louis, 4 – 0)


Regular Season Analysis:

This was a back and forth series throughout the regular season with neither team winning more than 2 games in a row versus the other. Each team had a shutout versus the other and through the 12 games played, the Blues had a 6 goal advantage in Goals For (43 – 37). Let’s take a closer look at both teams and see who I think will prevail in this series.

Note: I won't be going too deep in to the season statistics for this break down. My analysis will simply be based on how the teams performed in the first round and personal observations.


How They Got Here:

St. Louis advanced to the finals after a hard fought 7 game series versus Vancouver where they won the deciding game 2 - 1 in Overtime. The Panthers eliminated the Red Wings with a convincing 7 - 3 victory in game 6 of their series.

The Matchup:

Offense: Advantage Florida

Both of these teams have very dangerous offenses and during their 7 game series in the first round, the Blues had 21 goals for, an average of 3 goals per game. Their counterparts in Florida scored 28 goals in 6 games during the first round, which was an average of 4.67 goals per game. Obviously, they played against different opponents with different abilities so whether that is a true indicator of which team has the advantage offensively is anyone's guess. The Panthers owned the three top spots in scoring in round 1 with Banks (17 pts.), Chew (13 pts.), and Greek (13 pts.) leading the way. Combine that with their goals for they had in the first round and Florida has the advantage.

Defense: Advantage St. Louis

If we take a look at the Goals Allowed during the first round for both of these teams, Florida allowed 23 goals in 6 games and the Blues allowed 19 goals in 7 games. Both the Blues and Panthers had 3 defensemen top 10 in D-Rating, with Drug leading the way for the Blues at 92.2 and allthway for the Panthers at 87.7. Taking the average D-Rating of each of the defenders on both squads, the Blues have an average of 85.6 and the Panthers an average of 82.3 with the obvious edge to St. Louis. When it comes to offensive production from the back end, Florida boasted 4 of the top 10 scorers (17 points combined) while their counterparts in St. Louis only had 2 (7 points combined). It should be interesting to see how this series pans out but defensively based on the statistics thus far, I'm giving the edge to the Blues.

Goaltending: Advantage Even

This comparison was directly related to the stats and some of personal insight as well. Statistically speaking, slickeee (7gp) gets the edge over his counterpart in Florida, HABS (6gp). In 7 games played, slickeee had a GAA of 2.61 and Save% of .812 while HABS had a GAA of 3.67 and Save % of .808, with slickeee having the advantage in both categories. However, I cannot overlook HABS playoff experience here at XBS as he has played in 107 games, with a 57 - 43 - 7 record, while winning 4 Stanley Cups. Therefore I'm calling this matchup even.

Intangibles: Advantage Florida

Both teams are oozing with experience both in the regular season and in the playoffs and I can't say anybody has the edge in that department. Each team also has plenty of flexibility on their rosters with each having guys that can play multiple positions effectively. However, physically, not taking anything away from OSB, who loves to throw his weight around, but the Panthers play more of a physical brand of hockey. In their 6 games played in the first round, the roster of Florida combined for 98 hits, while on the flip side, the Blues dished out only a combined 71 hits in one extra game, as their first round series went 7 games. In two out of the three categories I compared these two squads come out even, but in the third, physicality, the Panthers get the nod and thus the Advantage in the Intangibles.

The Panthers Win if:
  • HABS steals one or two games in the series
  • They use their physical style to their advantage
  • Defensively they tighten things up as compared to the first round
  • The forwards continue to get offensive support from the back end

The Blues Win if:
  • Slickeee continues to put up impressive numbers between the pipes
  • Defensively they continue to play as conistently as they did in Round 1
  • They don't get dominated physically by the Panthers
  • Their offense is able to keep up with the red hot Panthers offense


Prediction:
Florida in 7

In all honesty this series can easily go either way. However, I am giving the series to the Panthers for a few reasons. First off, based on their performance in the first round I feel like they are consistently playing the best hockey right now. Not to take anything away from the Blues but they struggled more than I expected versus Vancouver in the first round and barely escaped in 7. Secondly, though slickeee had an outstanding first round HABS was just as good and I wonder how slickeee will hold up during the pressure of the finals. But like I said earlier, this series is a real toss up and I am in no way underestimating the Blues who may just in fact take this series. Good luck to both teams!

Last edited by DustyRytStyk; Jan. 29th, '17 at 9:27 pm.



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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 9:15 pm   #2
DustyRytStyk
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Hey boys, not as in depth as usual but I hope you enjoy!



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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 9:17 pm   #3
DrugMonkeyRX
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Great stuff dusty....these breakdowns are gold man.


I know it's been said many times but without these breakdowns this league would NOT be the same




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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 9:21 pm   #4
OldTimeHockey
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Absolutely enjoyed it!!! And thanks for the added motivation.

Good luck Florida. Let's have a good one.



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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 9:23 pm   #5
Nico 916 Suave
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Good work dude!

Good luck Florida.

Another thing, Spud and I started on the same team in Arizona, now we wind up against each other in the cup finals good luck man
If you will it, dude... It is no dream. - Walter Sobchak
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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 10:09 pm   #6
Blackzyuk
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Like the write up!



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Old Jan. 29th, '17, 10:44 pm   #7
DesiredCustoms
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Jun 2008 3,175
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Great job on the write up. and great 1st game...

Xbsdesired is streaming 2nd game. Marks feed was weird



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Old Jan. 30th, '17, 7:04 am   #8
OSB
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Great writeup Dusty! Thanks for the time and thought you put in to this!



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Old Jan. 30th, '17, 8:40 am   #9
OldTimeHockey
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Apparently every other team has been instructed to not read or listen to the press. LMFAO



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Old Jan. 30th, '17, 1:09 pm   #10
BleedBlueBlood
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Nice work Dusty and thanks again for all your hard work over the season. We appreciate it very much.




As you skate across my blueline in the shadow of death, thou shall fear my evil - Sauerkraut 23:4
Gonna Make Goalie Great Again, Da! - Baron Von Tretiak
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